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Who's In, Who's Out:
Selection Day
For The GOP Presidential Debate
August 04, 2015 6:06 PM ET

Republican presidential candidates, from left,
Lindsey Graham, Ben Carson, John Kasich, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Rick Santorum
speak
among themselves
after a forum Monday, Aug. 3, 2015,
in Manchester, N.H.

The final polls are in
and the stage is set
for Thursday night's first Republican presidential debate.

Those who made the cut,
according to Fox News:
businessman Donald Trump, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Relegated to an earlier debate Thursday evening:
Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Gov. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.

The choice on who to include
was a tough one for Fox,
which had to decide exactly
how to fit so many candidates
on stage
amid a ballooning field.

Fox's ultimate decision was to base
who made the main debate stage
in Cleveland on Thursday night at 9 p.m. ET
on five of the most recent national polls
that met their standards.
Surveys from Bloomberg, CBS News, Fox News, Quinnipiac University and Monmouth University
were averaged.

"If you had all 17 on stage,
it's not fair
to the voters who are looking for
more than to just 'speed date,'"
said national GOP strategist Ron Bonjean.
"Fox News had to go
on some type of criteria,
even if you're talking margin of error,
which is unfortunate.
But how else are you going to be able
to create a situation
that is viewing material?"

The top debate does have
plenty to look forward to,
mainly because of Trump's presence.

"It's 'must-see TV,'
but the 'must-see' starts
with Trump,"
said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell.
"Is he going to be a statesman
or is he going to be an outspoken bomb thrower?
Who knows."

Both O'Connell and Bonjean said
the other top candidates,
like Bush and Walker,
would be wise to avoid taking
on Trump directly,
since they have nothing to gain
and more to lose by doing so.
But other candidates
who need a surge of momentum
might benefit
from some direct attacks.

"Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee,
and even John Kasich
need to rise
in the polls,
and by taking on Donald Trump,
that could really help shine a positive light
on them,"
Bonjean said.
"Trying to get Trump
into a verbal wrestling match
could be extremely helpful
to their candidacy."

Kasich nabbed the last spot
on stage,
capping off an impressive rise
after announcing his candidacy
relatively late,
just a few weeks ago.
It would have been an embarrassment
for the Ohio governor had he been left off the stage
in his home state.

But Kasich's surge seemed to come
at the expense of Perry.
Perry has tried to shed
the bumbling image of his failed 2012 campaign —
personified by his infamous "oops" moment
in a 2011 debate —
and he's been getting better reviews
on the campaign trail this time around.
But it wasn't enough for Perry.

"He's got to be just livid,"
O'Connell said.
"It's unfortunate for Rick
because this time around,
it's hard to make
a first impression
the second time."

Perry's absence robs
Republicans
of one of their loudest attack dogs
against Trump.
The former Texas governor have exchanged
barbs
over immigration and the border.
Perry said
Trump was "unfit" to be president
after he dismissed Arizona Sen. John McCain's time
as a Vietnam prisoner of war.

The snub of Perry, along with Graham and Gilmore,
also means
there will be no military veterans
on the main debate stage
at a time
when foreign policy has emerged
as one of the top issues
in the race.
Graham has also been highly critical of Trump,
calling him a "jackass"
after his comments against McCain.

Many Republicans had also wanted Fiorina,
the only woman in the field,
to be on stage as well.
She's emerged
as one of the GOP's most effective attack dogs
against Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton i
n a party in need of diversity
and to close the gender gap.

But the earlier debate,
airing at 5 p.m. ET on Fox News,
has one big benefit,
according to the GOP strategists —
it won't have Donald Trump.

And that means
it could be more substantive
and give new candidates a chance
to rise ahead of the next debate.

"It's the warm up bench,"
Bonjean said.
"It's the minor leagues.
But at the same time,
they get a chance to work
on their presentations —
and they don't have to deal
with Donald Trump either."

http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/08/04/429428404/whos-in-whos-out-selection-day-for-the-gop-presidential-debate

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[3중급] Who's In, Who's Out: Selection Day

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